Elder dragon
Elder is an ending combat buff, but the present sample is small and its estimate remains exploratory.
Games won by the team reaching the milestone.
Share of remaining loss closed: 59.1% → 61.8%.
Absolute forecast move before ÷ remaining loss.
Exploratory estimate; use cautiously.
Read the number, then play the map.
This transition captures the immediate change in the modeled game state when the objective is secured.
Treat the pit as a fight first. Elder damage is only valuable if enough buff carriers survive to use it.
Raw win rate is inflated because winning teams earn more objective access. The state-adjusted transition is the more conservative decision cue.
Plan the next wave, reset, structure, or objective before the capture so the buff or reward becomes map progress rather than idle inventory.