First dragon
First dragon is an early permanent stack, but it is entangled with the bot-side fight and access that produced it.
Games won by the team reaching the milestone.
Share of remaining loss closed: 51.1% → 57.1%.
Absolute forecast move before ÷ remaining loss.
Published transition sample.
Read the number, then play the map.
This transition captures the immediate change in the modeled game state when the objective is secured.
Start when the opposing contest is controlled, your damage is sufficient, and the team can either finish or disengage on command.
A dragon capture can be the receipt for winning the preceding bot or river fight. The transition model reduces, but cannot erase, that confounding.
Reset the map around the next spawn timer; the strongest value may be the future contest forced by stack advantage.