Research note · Objective value

What is each objective actually worth?

Compare the map events that move games the most. The main number accounts for how likely the team already was to win, so a late Baron in a nearly won game does not get all the credit.

0121.5%

Mid inhibitor

Biggest increase in win chance among stable structure transitions.

0221.7%

Mid T3

Base access carries nearly the same lift as the inhibitor behind it.

0312.4%

Second dragon

Strongest stable neutral objective by increase in win chance.

THE HEADLINE

Mid base access changes the game’s geometry.

Mid T3 and mid inhibitor currently increase modeled win chance by 21.7% and 21.5% on the remaining-loss scale. They open both sides of the defending jungle, shorten the route to the Nexus, and create continuation choices into Baron, dragon, another inhibitor, or an ending push.

Side-lane inhibitors still matter: 13.4% for bot and 14.4% for top. First Baron is 12.3% and Herald is 4.1% in the current materialization.

BARON DECISION GUIDE

Baron is powerful. A bad start can still throw the game.

Across 13,618 first-Baron takes, securing it increased the winning team’s chance to win by 12.3% on our adjusted scale. Failed starts are not included yet.

Open the Baron decision guide
DRAGON DECISION GUIDE

The best Dragon call is the one your team survives.

Across 2,214 replay-reviewed attempts, starters won 68.3% after securing, 54.9% after backing off, and 47.3% after losing the objective. See when to start, when to leave, and what to do next.

Open the Dragon decision guide
BASE-ENDING GUIDE

Third inhibitor, Baron, or just end?

After two inhibitors fall, teams that keep pushing the Nexus finish within three minutes 84.0% of the time. The speed difference is clearer than the final win-rate difference.

See what teams did next
Structures

Breaking the map open

Sorted by increase in win chance — share of remaining loss closed.

EventIncrease in win chanceWin probabilityRaw point jumpRaw win rateObservations
Mid T321.7%74.9% 80.3%+5.4586.3%11,559
Mid inhibitor21.5%76.2% 81.3%+5.1387.6%10,573
First Nexus turret17.7%79.6% 83.2%+3.6190.2%5,552
Second Nexus turret16.2%81.2% 84.2%+3.0592.5%3,471
Top inhibitor14.4%78.0% 81.2%+3.1685.6%3,678
Bot T314.1%78.8% 81.8%+2.9885.2%6,077
Bot inhibitor13.4%79.7% 82.4%+2.7386.8%4,655
Top T312.8%76.8% 79.8%+2.9683.0%5,033
Mid T211.6%66.9% 70.8%+3.8475.8%18,192
Bot T29.4%69.7% 72.6%+2.8574.6%15,014
Top T27.1%68.1% 70.3%+2.2671.7%14,249
Mid T15.1%54.7% 57.0%+2.3160.4%26,075
Bot T14.5%53.5% 55.5%+2.0957.8%28,029
Top T13.1%52.8% 54.3%+1.4756.5%28,202
Neutral objectives

What the pit is worth

Sorted by increase in win chance — share of remaining loss closed.

EventIncrease in win chanceWin probabilityRaw point jumpRaw win rateObservations
Soul dragon18.1%77.0% 81.2%+4.1686.7%4,054
Third dragon14.3%71.9% 75.9%+4.0378.7%10,894
First dragon12.4%51.1% 57.1%+6.0659.4%27,309
Second dragon12.4%62.4% 67.1%+4.6470.3%19,396
First Baron12.3%65.0% 69.3%+4.3078.4%13,618
AtakhanExploratory7.8%68.2% 70.7%+2.4781.1%286
Elder dragonExploratory6.8%59.1% 61.8%+2.7973.9%839
Second Baron6.8%69.7% 71.7%+2.0580.9%2,409
Herald4.1%63.2% 64.7%+1.5166.0%14,092
Third grub2.9%54.8% 56.1%+1.3158.0%13,538
Second grub2.9%54.2% 55.5%+1.3157.1%17,008
First grub2.0%52.9% 53.9%+0.9555.2%20,460
Third BaronExploratory1.2%65.9% 66.3%+0.4076.0%177
Combat & economy

How leads harden into wins

Sorted by increase in win chance — share of remaining loss closed.

EventIncrease in win chanceWin probabilityRaw point jumpRaw win rateObservations
First sustained 5k gold lead12.3%88.2% 89.6%+1.4591.9%7,101
First sustained 3k gold lead10.1%80.6% 82.6%+1.9684.3%10,042
First to 3 kills9.3%52.4% 56.8%+4.4260.4%11,357
First blood8.9%49.7% 54.2%+4.4657.0%15,547
First to 5 kills8.4%56.1% 59.8%+3.7063.6%11,356
First sustained 2k gold lead8.3%74.8% 76.8%+2.0979.5%10,934
First to 10 kills7.2%63.3% 65.9%+2.6669.2%11,331
First sustained 1k gold lead4.5%67.0% 68.4%+1.4770.7%11,317
Lane states

Winning lane is not the same as winning

Sorted by increase in win chance — share of remaining loss closed.

EventIncrease in win chanceWin probabilityRaw point jumpRaw win rateObservations
Won bot at 143.1%64.2% 65.3%+1.0964.6%14,453
Major bot advantage2.8%64.1% 65.1%+1.0164.7%7,681
Won mid at 142.7%61.1% 62.1%+1.0363.0%14,245
Won top at 141.9%60.1% 60.9%+0.7560.1%14,762
Major top advantage1.9%59.1% 59.9%+0.7759.7%7,425
Major mid advantage1.8%59.6% 60.3%+0.7262.2%7,927
WHEN THE INHIBITOR FALLS

Mid remains the most efficient lane.

Leftover losses cleared when the inhibitor falls, grouped by minute.

15–19 min
Top
14.3%
Mid
30.5%
Bot
16.8%
20–24 min
Top
16.8%
Mid
29.4%
Bot
19.6%
25–29 min
Top
15.8%
Mid
25.7%
Bot
16.7%
30–34 min
Top
15.9%
Mid
20.3%
Bot
13.1%
35–39 min
Top
13.2%
Mid
14.3%
Bot
10.2%
A FAIR WARNING

Objectives happen alongside fights, waves, and deaths.

Each row compares the game immediately before and after the event across 17,106 ranked-solo games. The number describes the whole swing around the objective, not a guaranteed value for taking it. Rows under 50 games or marked exploratory are early signals. Most games are recent high-level solo queue from NA and Korea.

COMMENTS

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