Behind in mid.
Stability is only half the job.
Mid occupies the shortest route to both rivers, jungles, and side lanes. Holding the deficit matters because it restores access to the next supported map action.
Compare every role →Stabilization is a platform, not the destination.
Holding mid without a downstream conversion showed little immediate value. Teammate economy, team-gold recovery, and cross-map gains separated much earlier than personal recovery alone.
This does not mean roaming blindly. Safe wave clear, health, mana, and recall timing are what make the next river, jungle, fight, tower, or side-lane action viable. A failed low-opportunity roam can deepen the exact deficit the strategy is supposed to control.
at 10:00
135 similar team situations.
from here
Likely range: 32.7%–40.7%
later in the game
What happened in comparable games.
How the forecast changes from here
Remain in the selected absolute deficit band.
Move one band farther behind every two minutes.
Move one band toward even every two minutes.
Every percentage forecasts the entire match.
What changed the next eight minutes?
See which kinds of recovery showed up most often in winning comebacks.
| What changed | Chance to win | Observed gain | Adjusted gain | Likely range | Similar situations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fight swingkill differential improves by at least two | 69.3% | +23.8 pp | +22.3 pp | 21.5–23.2 pp | 85760% of games |
| Team gold recoveryteam gold differential improves by more than 500g | 66.5% | +21.7 pp | +5.1 pp | 4.8–5.5 pp | 57740% of games |
| Turret gainrelative structure count improves by at least one | 68.9% | +16.0 pp | +8.0 pp | 7.4–8.5 pp | 80256% of games |
| Teammate economynon-mid teammate gold differential improves by more than 500g | 59.7% | +14.7 pp | +6.0 pp | 5.4–6.5 pp | 42930% of games |
| Objective gainrelative neutral-objective count improves by at least one | 55.1% | +8.6 pp | +6.0 pp | 5.5–6.5 pp | 89162% of games |
| Bottom-lane gainbot-duo gold differential improves by more than 500g | 55.1% | +7.6 pp | +6.7 pp | 6.4–7.0 pp | 1,419100% of games |
| Cross-map dividendmid does not materially recover while teammates, objectives, structures, or fights improve | 46.5% | +1.5 pp | +6.6 pp | 5.5–7.7 pp | 856% of games |
What does adjusted gain mean?
Adjusted gain tries to separate this change from other things happening at the same time. It is still a pattern in the data, not proof that the action alone caused the win.
See every recovery path
Hold, bleed, recover, reverse
Results with fewer than 50 similar situations are early signals only.
| After | Path | Ending gap | Chance to win | Change | Situations | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2 min | bleeding | -1,509g | 31.7% | -5.4 pp | 83 | exploratory |
| +2 min | recovered | -497g | 41.3% | +2.3 pp | 33 | suppressed |
| +2 min | reversed | +182g | 46.7% | +12.2 pp | 5 | suppressed |
| +2 min | stabilized | -1,005g | 34.2% | -0.9 pp | 111 | exploratory |
| +4 min | bleeding | -1,824g | 27.7% | -6.8 pp | 128 | exploratory |
| +4 min | recovered | -421g | 39.7% | +5.2 pp | 27 | suppressed |
| +4 min | reversed | +350g | 40.3% | +1.9 pp | 10 | suppressed |
| +4 min | stabilized | -983g | 36.3% | -2.1 pp | 67 | exploratory |
| +6 min | bleeding | -2,096g | 28.8% | -9.4 pp | 124 | exploratory |
| +6 min | recovered | -329g | 47.9% | +11.0 pp | 30 | suppressed |
| +6 min | reversed | +567g | 52.0% | +17.1 pp | 12 | suppressed |
| +6 min | stabilized | -942g | 37.5% | -2.2 pp | 42 | suppressed |
| +8 min | bleeding | -2,294g | 25.0% | -13.8 pp | 132 | exploratory |
| +8 min | recovered | -368g | 45.4% | +11.0 pp | 25 | suppressed |
| +8 min | reversed | +654g | 62.3% | +27.7 pp | 18 | suppressed |
| +8 min | stabilized | -923g | 47.4% | +5.9 pp | 30 | suppressed |
See the full Mid lane win-chance table
Chance to win by minute and deficit
Average result for teams in each 250g deficit range.
| Minute | -1,500g | -1,250g | -1,000g | -750g | -500g | -250g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 | — | — | — | — | 35.1% | 47.9% |
| 4:00 | — | — | — | 38.2% | 43.2% | 49.8% |
| 6:00 | — | — | 30.0% | 38.1% | 40.8% | 47.2% |
| 8:00 | — | 29.0% | 33.5% | 37.7% | 43.1% | 48.1% |
| 10:00 | 24.1% | 33.3% | 36.8% | 36.1% | 46.8% | 49.0% |
| 12:00 | 32.1% | 31.8% | 36.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | 49.4% |
| 14:00 | 27.1% | 34.7% | 36.9% | 37.7% | 42.3% | 44.2% |
| 16:00 | 34.8% | 37.3% | 38.9% | 40.4% | 47.2% | 48.4% |
| 18:00 | 32.0% | 40.2% | 42.2% | 44.8% | 44.1% | 51.7% |
| 20:00 | 34.1% | 49.0% | 37.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | 47.4% |
How we calculated this
How to read the deeper tables
The first comparison shows everything that changed along the observed path. The adjusted comparison tries to avoid giving one fight or tower credit for the entire comeback. We only show cells with at least 50 similar situations.
mid-lane-win-path-v1 · patch 16.17 · EUW1 · KR · NA1