Behind in jungle.
Recover the map, not only the camps.
A jungle deficit can remove access to the resources needed to recover. The strongest paths came through fights and team economy, with objectives and structures following.
Compare every role →A losing jungler needs one favorable team event more than a private farm race.
The sharp forecast decline near a 1,000g deficit likely bundles camp loss, invades, deaths, lane weakness, tempo, and objective access. Personal gold recovery helps, but the larger supported gains came from fight swings, team-gold recovery, teammate economy, towers, and objectives.
The correct response is not desperation ganking. Protect safe resources, avoid contests unsupported by lane priority, and route limited tempo into the highest-probability team conversion available.
at 10:00
187 similar team situations.
from here
Likely range: 24.8%–30.9%
later in the game
What happened in comparable games.
How the forecast changes from here
Remain in the selected absolute deficit band.
Move one band farther behind every two minutes.
Move one band toward even every two minutes.
Every percentage forecasts the entire match.
What changed the next eight minutes?
See which kinds of recovery showed up most often in winning comebacks.
| What changed | Chance to win | Observed gain | Adjusted gain | Likely range | Similar situations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fight swingkill differential improves by at least two | 66.6% | +25.1 pp | +14.1 pp | 12.3–16.0 pp | 22664% of games |
| Team gold recoveryteam gold differential improves by more than 500g | 65.1% | +24.5 pp | +25.8 pp | 22.9–28.7 pp | 16948% of games |
| Teammate economynon-jungle teammate gold differential improves by more than 500g | 60.8% | +19.0 pp | 0.0 pp | 0.0–0.0 pp | 14541% of games |
| Turret gainrelative structure count improves by at least one | 64.4% | +15.1 pp | +4.0 pp | 3.0–5.1 pp | 19355% of games |
| Objective gainrelative neutral-objective count improves by at least one | 57.8% | +14.1 pp | +10.4 pp | 9.1–11.6 pp | 23166% of games |
| Personal recoveryjungle gold differential improves by more than 250g | 46.2% | +12.3 pp | +3.5 pp | 2.9–4.2 pp | 20258% of games |
| Bottom-lane gainbot-duo gold differential improves by more than 500g | 47.4% | +9.3 pp | +3.0 pp | 2.5–3.4 pp | 34598% of games |
| Mid-lane gainmid gold differential improves by more than 300g | 43.4% | +8.8 pp | +0.1 pp | 0.0–0.2 pp | 34899% of games |
| Cross-map dividendjungle does not materially recover while teammates, objectives, structures, or fights improve | 46.2% | +5.7 pp | +0.3 pp | 0.2–0.4 pp | 15644% of games |
What does adjusted gain mean?
Adjusted gain tries to separate this change from other things happening at the same time. It is still a pattern in the data, not proof that the action alone caused the win.
See every recovery path
Hold, bleed, recover, reverse
Results with fewer than 50 similar situations are early signals only.
| After | Path | Ending gap | Chance to win | Change | Situations | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2 min | bleeding | -1,464g | 19.7% | -10.4 pp | 108 | exploratory |
| +2 min | recovered | -540g | 34.2% | +6.2 pp | 50 | exploratory |
| +2 min | reversed | +149g | 30.3% | +8.7 pp | 4 | suppressed |
| +2 min | stabilized | -972g | 30.8% | +3.2 pp | 138 | exploratory |
| +4 min | bleeding | -1,704g | 22.5% | -7.2 pp | 156 | exploratory |
| +4 min | recovered | -412g | 42.1% | +13.5 pp | 47 | suppressed |
| +4 min | reversed | +249g | 44.9% | +21.7 pp | 14 | suppressed |
| +4 min | stabilized | -979g | 27.3% | -2.8 pp | 83 | exploratory |
| +6 min | bleeding | -1,900g | 24.8% | -7.7 pp | 155 | exploratory |
| +6 min | recovered | -470g | 37.6% | +3.5 pp | 46 | suppressed |
| +6 min | reversed | +325g | 51.8% | +21.2 pp | 17 | suppressed |
| +6 min | stabilized | -974g | 38.7% | +7.3 pp | 42 | suppressed |
| +8 min | bleeding | -2,281g | 22.8% | -10.6 pp | 154 | exploratory |
| +8 min | recovered | -380g | 40.6% | +8.5 pp | 39 | suppressed |
| +8 min | reversed | +484g | 56.8% | +19.3 pp | 21 | suppressed |
| +8 min | stabilized | -927g | 36.4% | +7.0 pp | 39 | suppressed |
See the full Jungle win-chance table
Chance to win by minute and deficit
Average result for teams in each 250g deficit range.
| Minute | -1,500g | -1,250g | -1,000g | -750g | -500g | -250g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 | — | — | — | — | 31.5% | 47.0% |
| 4:00 | — | — | — | 22.4% | 33.0% | 46.4% |
| 6:00 | — | — | 26.2% | 29.2% | 36.6% | 48.4% |
| 8:00 | — | 21.3% | 30.6% | 32.2% | 40.0% | 47.3% |
| 10:00 | 20.2% | 28.0% | 27.8% | 37.4% | 43.9% | 45.5% |
| 12:00 | 26.3% | 28.8% | 33.1% | 35.3% | 41.8% | 43.3% |
| 14:00 | 30.2% | 26.2% | 30.0% | 35.4% | 42.5% | 49.1% |
| 16:00 | 34.7% | 32.9% | 35.9% | 39.1% | 42.2% | 45.8% |
| 18:00 | 30.1% | 34.2% | 45.6% | 42.5% | 44.9% | 46.2% |
| 20:00 | 29.3% | 42.5% | 42.9% | 46.1% | 50.7% | 47.7% |
How we calculated this
How to read the deeper tables
The first comparison shows everything that changed along the observed path. The adjusted comparison tries to avoid giving one fight or tower credit for the entire comeback. We only show cells with at least 50 similar situations.
jungle-win-path-v1 · patch 16.17 · EUW1 · KR · NA1