Behind in bottom lane.
Which partner carries the recovery?
Bottom duo is the combined ADC-plus-support economy, not the ADC alone. Stabilize the pair, then decide whether the comeback should run through carry income, support map impact, or the other three players.
Compare every role →The duo deficit is survivable. The compound lane-and-map deficit is not.
Carry-only recovery repaired the lane economy most directly. Support-only recovery could improve the team while the duo remained behind, consistent with value moving through roams, vision, engages, saves, and teammate enablement.
When both partners recovered, the result usually belonged to a whole-game turnaround rather than an isolated lane event. Bottom-lane coaching therefore needs an explicit resource decision: who should receive safe income, and who should spend time creating value elsewhere?
at 10:00
122 similar team situations.
from here
Likely range: 35.7%–44.1%
later in the game
What happened in comparable games.
How the forecast changes from here
Remain in the selected absolute deficit band.
Move one band farther behind every two minutes.
Move one band toward even every two minutes.
Every percentage forecasts the entire match.
What changed the next eight minutes?
See which kinds of recovery showed up most often in winning comebacks.
| What changed | Chance to win | Observed gain | Adjusted gain | Likely range | Similar situations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom-lane gainbot-duo gold differential improves by more than 500g | 72.4% | +28.9 pp | +9.8 pp | 9.2–10.6 pp | 46030% of games |
| Team gold recoveryteam gold differential improves by more than 500g | 74.4% | +27.1 pp | +5.2 pp | 4.8–5.6 pp | 67944% of games |
| Fight swingkill differential improves by at least two | 73.3% | +26.7 pp | +30.1 pp | 29.3–30.9 pp | 1,03867% of games |
| Personal recoverybottom_lane gold differential improves by more than 250g | 67.7% | +24.4 pp | +1.2 pp | 1.0–1.5 pp | 29619% of games |
| Teammate economynon-bottom_lane teammate gold differential improves by more than 500g | 67.0% | +18.7 pp | +5.7 pp | 5.3–6.1 pp | 68844% of games |
| Objective gainrelative neutral-objective count improves by at least one | 65.5% | +17.7 pp | +8.4 pp | 8.0–8.9 pp | 1,08269% of games |
| Turret gainrelative structure count improves by at least one | 70.8% | +17.4 pp | +2.8 pp | 2.6–3.0 pp | 98163% of games |
| Mid-lane gainmid gold differential improves by more than 300g | 57.2% | +12.8 pp | +2.0 pp | 1.9–2.2 pp | 1,557100% of games |
| Cross-map dividendbottom_lane does not materially recover while teammates, objectives, structures, or fights improve | 51.2% | +3.1 pp | +3.6 pp | 3.0–4.2 pp | 1077% of games |
What does adjusted gain mean?
Adjusted gain tries to separate this change from other things happening at the same time. It is still a pattern in the data, not proof that the action alone caused the win.
See every recovery path
Hold, bleed, recover, reverse
Results with fewer than 50 similar situations are early signals only.
| After | Path | Ending gap | Chance to win | Change | Situations | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2 min | bleeding | -1,675g | 31.2% | -7.5 pp | 98 | exploratory |
| +2 min | recovered | -444g | 39.1% | +4.2 pp | 49 | suppressed |
| +2 min | reversed | +308g | 59.5% | +14.5 pp | 9 | suppressed |
| +2 min | stabilized | -1,010g | 43.9% | +2.5 pp | 76 | exploratory |
| +4 min | bleeding | -2,254g | 31.3% | -9.1 pp | 140 | exploratory |
| +4 min | recovered | -429g | 37.5% | +6.4 pp | 32 | suppressed |
| +4 min | reversed | +602g | 64.7% | +17.3 pp | 21 | suppressed |
| +4 min | stabilized | -1,020g | 44.2% | +9.8 pp | 38 | suppressed |
| +6 min | bleeding | -2,570g | 30.9% | -10.2 pp | 117 | exploratory |
| +6 min | recovered | -425g | 42.2% | +3.7 pp | 32 | suppressed |
| +6 min | reversed | +921g | 70.3% | +26.4 pp | 40 | suppressed |
| +6 min | stabilized | -983g | 44.4% | +6.3 pp | 28 | suppressed |
| +8 min | bleeding | -2,824g | 28.9% | -12.6 pp | 127 | exploratory |
| +8 min | recovered | -438g | 51.2% | +12.6 pp | 29 | suppressed |
| +8 min | reversed | +1,453g | 80.0% | +33.2 pp | 39 | suppressed |
| +8 min | stabilized | -991g | 39.6% | +1.5 pp | 18 | suppressed |
See the full Bottom duo win-chance table
Chance to win by minute and deficit
Average result for teams in each 250g deficit range.
| Minute | -1,500g | -1,250g | -1,000g | -750g | -500g | -250g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 | — | — | — | 40.2% | 44.1% | 48.6% |
| 4:00 | — | — | 31.8% | 38.7% | 43.3% | 49.2% |
| 6:00 | 21.8% | 28.6% | 39.6% | 41.8% | 43.1% | 48.1% |
| 8:00 | 26.2% | 32.2% | 38.1% | 40.8% | 43.1% | 46.5% |
| 10:00 | 30.6% | 35.9% | 40.0% | 47.6% | 48.7% | 45.1% |
| 12:00 | 38.1% | 41.8% | 41.5% | 39.3% | 46.6% | 50.8% |
| 14:00 | 36.5% | 41.9% | 47.9% | 43.2% | 49.4% | 51.7% |
| 16:00 | 40.5% | 44.2% | 45.9% | 44.2% | 47.0% | 50.7% |
| 18:00 | 39.1% | 35.7% | 45.0% | 35.5% | 46.1% | 51.3% |
| 20:00 | 44.2% | 48.2% | 48.5% | 43.7% | 48.8% | 57.2% |
How we calculated this
How to read the deeper tables
The first comparison shows everything that changed along the observed path. The adjusted comparison tries to avoid giving one fight or tower credit for the entire comeback. We only show cells with at least 50 similar situations.
bottom-lane-win-path-v1 · patch 16.17 · EUW1 · KR · NA1