Behind on ADC.
Buy the next threshold, not the last fight.
This study isolates the bottom carry from support. ADC comeback value arrives through protected income and item thresholds, but the team must first preserve the time and access needed to reach them.
Compare every role →ADC recovery is delayed output purchased by team stability.
Personal recovery strengthened with time: +6.0 percentage points at two minutes, +9.1 at four, +11.7 at six, and +19.8 at eight. That curve fits a farming carry whose extra income must accumulate into meaningful item completions before it changes fights.
Team-gold recovery remained larger at every interval, rising from +9.0 to +26.1 points. This is not evidence that ADC farm is unimportant. It shows the dependency direction: teammates create safe waves, resets, space, and survivable fights; the ADC then converts that protected access into sustained damage and late objective speed.
at 10:00
232 similar team situations.
from here
Likely range: 33.7%–39.2%
later in the game
What happened in comparable games.
How the forecast changes from here
Remain in the selected absolute deficit band.
Move one band farther behind every two minutes.
Move one band toward even every two minutes.
Every percentage forecasts the entire match.
What changed the next eight minutes?
See which kinds of recovery showed up most often in winning comebacks.
| What changed | Chance to win | Observed gain | Adjusted gain | Likely range | Similar situations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team gold recoveryteam gold differential improves by more than 500g | 71.9% | +26.1 pp | +3.6 pp | 3.2–4.1 pp | 16142% of games |
| Fight swingkill differential improves by at least two | 71.3% | +25.4 pp | +18.5 pp | 17.2–20.0 pp | 23963% of games |
| Bottom-lane gainbot-duo gold differential improves by more than 500g | 62.5% | +24.9 pp | +23.5 pp | 21.1–25.9 pp | 17145% of games |
| Personal recoverybot gold differential improves by more than 250g | 55.8% | +19.8 pp | +5.5 pp | 4.4–6.6 pp | 13335% of games |
| Turret gainrelative structure count improves by at least one | 69.3% | +19.6 pp | +11.1 pp | 9.9–12.5 pp | 21857% of games |
| Teammate economynon-bot teammate gold differential improves by more than 500g | 63.2% | +16.5 pp | +2.2 pp | 1.8–2.7 pp | 14438% of games |
| Objective gainrelative neutral-objective count improves by at least one | 56.9% | +9.9 pp | +5.7 pp | 5.0–6.3 pp | 26871% of games |
| Mid-lane gainmid gold differential improves by more than 300g | 47.5% | +7.1 pp | +5.3 pp | 4.6–5.9 pp | 36997% of games |
| Cross-map dividendbot does not materially recover while teammates, objectives, structures, or fights improve | 49.2% | +3.5 pp | +3.0 pp | 2.5–3.7 pp | 11430% of games |
What does adjusted gain mean?
Adjusted gain tries to separate this change from other things happening at the same time. It is still a pattern in the data, not proof that the action alone caused the win.
See every recovery path
Hold, bleed, recover, reverse
Results with fewer than 50 similar situations are early signals only.
| After | Path | Ending gap | Chance to win | Change | Situations | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2 min | bleeding | -1,669g | 24.7% | -6.7 pp | 163 | exploratory |
| +2 min | recovered | -524g | 34.2% | +3.6 pp | 56 | exploratory |
| +2 min | reversed | +136g | 57.6% | +23.1 pp | 8 | suppressed |
| +2 min | stabilized | -980g | 40.0% | +1.9 pp | 144 | exploratory |
| +4 min | bleeding | -2,132g | 28.9% | -4.2 pp | 243 | exploratory |
| +4 min | recovered | -358g | 33.4% | +2.5 pp | 46 | suppressed |
| +4 min | reversed | +372g | 60.4% | +25.1 pp | 19 | suppressed |
| +4 min | stabilized | -993g | 38.9% | +4.1 pp | 62 | exploratory |
| +6 min | bleeding | -2,288g | 28.6% | -6.2 pp | 215 | exploratory |
| +6 min | recovered | -359g | 43.3% | +6.0 pp | 51 | exploratory |
| +6 min | reversed | +624g | 57.7% | +23.4 pp | 25 | suppressed |
| +6 min | stabilized | -974g | 41.0% | +8.6 pp | 42 | suppressed |
| +8 min | bleeding | -2,590g | 26.7% | -8.7 pp | 213 | exploratory |
| +8 min | recovered | -409g | 46.8% | +13.0 pp | 33 | suppressed |
| +8 min | reversed | +732g | 64.6% | +26.4 pp | 34 | suppressed |
| +8 min | stabilized | -975g | 38.2% | +0.0 pp | 42 | suppressed |
See the full ADC win-chance table
Chance to win by minute and deficit
Average result for teams in each 250g deficit range.
| Minute | -1,500g | -1,250g | -1,000g | -750g | -500g | -250g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 | — | — | — | 38.7% | 41.9% | 48.0% |
| 4:00 | — | — | — | 33.1% | 39.7% | 48.1% |
| 6:00 | — | — | 28.7% | 35.5% | 41.0% | 47.4% |
| 8:00 | 25.0% | 26.8% | 32.6% | 37.6% | 40.3% | 45.0% |
| 10:00 | 24.0% | 26.6% | 36.4% | 38.2% | 43.7% | 48.0% |
| 12:00 | 30.6% | 40.8% | 41.0% | 40.1% | 44.8% | 49.1% |
| 14:00 | 37.6% | 40.9% | 39.8% | 43.5% | 45.4% | 49.7% |
| 16:00 | 38.9% | 35.9% | 41.9% | 47.5% | 49.0% | 51.1% |
| 18:00 | 35.1% | 41.1% | 41.1% | 40.5% | 45.5% | 46.9% |
| 20:00 | 35.1% | 38.5% | 43.4% | 44.8% | 51.1% | 48.0% |
How we calculated this
How to read the deeper tables
The first comparison shows everything that changed along the observed path. The adjusted comparison tries to avoid giving one fight or tower credit for the entire comeback. We only show cells with at least 50 similar situations.
adc-win-path-v1 · patch 16.17 · EUW1 · KR · NA1