support · 43 games · exploratory

ELR weak

EXPECTED TRADE VALUE

What changes after an ability connects?

Direct damage, the next three seconds, and the complete trade.

Attempts: 1,140
Matches: 2
Lane env.: 7

ABILITY-SPECIFIC ESTIMATES

Damage and trade results

NamiE

a packet-linked terminal effect was observed

Observed packet attempts · damage basis0 attempts0 effect observed · 0 no effect

Effect observed: — direct
Cast, no effect: 0 attempts
Trade-end context: —

NamiQ

a packet-linked terminal effect was observed

Observed packet attempts · damage basis0 attempts0 effect observed · 0 no effect

Effect observed: — direct
Cast, no effect: 0 attempts
Trade-end context: —

NamiR

a packet-linked terminal effect was observed

Observed packet attempts · damage basis0 attempts0 effect observed · 0 no effect

Effect observed: — direct
Cast, no effect: 0 attempts
Trade-end context: —

NamiW

a packet-linked terminal effect was observed

Observed packet attempts · damage basis0 attempts0 effect observed · 0 no effect

Effect observed: — direct
Cast, no effect: 0 attempts
Trade-end context: —

SonaE

a packet-linked terminal effect was observed

Observed packet attempts · damage basis0 attempts0 effect observed · 0 no effect

Effect observed: — direct
Cast, no effect: 0 attempts
Trade-end context: —

SonaQ

a packet-linked terminal effect was observed

Observed packet attempts · damage basis0 attempts0 effect observed · 0 no effect

Effect observed: — direct
Cast, no effect: 0 attempts
Trade-end context: —

SonaR

a packet-linked terminal effect was observed

Observed packet attempts · damage basis0 attempts0 effect observed · 0 no effect

Effect observed: — direct
Cast, no effect: 0 attempts
Trade-end context: —

SonaW

a packet-linked terminal effect was observed

Observed packet attempts · damage basis0 attempts0 effect observed · 0 no effect

Effect observed: — direct
Cast, no effect: 0 attempts
Trade-end context: —

How this was reconstructed

Average champion damage per reconstructed tradeNami 132Sona 174

Packet casts seed attempts. Linked damage, crowd control, shields, and passive procs attach to the initiating action. Every example remains traceable to packet citations.

Two-sided packet example9:45

1R132 dmg
2Q19 dmg
3DMG106 dmg
4P131 dmg
5Wno dmg
6Rno dmg
7F105 dmg
8DMG107 dmg
9Eno dmg
10Wno dmg
11Eno dmg
12DMG41 dmg
13DMG35 dmg
14DMG35 dmg
15Qno dmg

Nami dealt: 107 dmg
Sona dealt: 604 dmg

Two-sided packet example0:36

1Q9 dmg
2DMG38 dmg
3DMG44 dmg
4Wno dmg
5DMG46 dmg
6P65 dmg
7DMG8 dmg
8DMG43 dmg
9DMG38 dmg
10DMG43 dmg
11DMG38 dmg

Nami dealt: 140 dmg
Sona dealt: 232 dmg

Two-sided packet example7:07

1DMG90 dmg
2Qno dmg
3Qno dmg
4S50no dmg
5DMG101 dmg
6DMG46 dmg
7DMG15 dmg
8DMG46 dmg
9Qno dmg
10DMG101 dmg

Nami dealt: 197 dmg
Sona dealt: 202 dmg

Win rate41.9%

Final game win chance in this matchup: 18 wins and 25 losses across 43 ranked games.

W / T / L @1440% / 7% / 54%

Lane gold lead at 14:00 — ahead, within ±200g, or behind. Counts: 17W · 3T · 23L.

Matchup ELR-14.5%

Share of remaining loss risk removed versus this champion's role baseline (49.2% → 41.9%, -7.3 pp). Positive favors the pick; negative hurts it.

Matchup ELR uses the same loss-risk normalization as the objective atlas: (post − pre) / (1 − pre), with pre = Nami's role baseline and post = this matchup's win probability. It can disagree with raw win rate when the baseline is already high or low.

COMMENTS

Nami vs Sona comments

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